Recap:
Monday - Opened @ 3917 spot, held and bounced —> Broke 3935 —> Rejected 57 for HOD —> Reclaimed 35 & closed above 50📈 (LOD BOUNCE + HOD REJECT🔥)
Tuesday - Chop —> hold 3973 —> EOD pop
Wednesday - FOMC chop, pop, then sell off 💣 —> Rejected 4035 spot for sell off
Thursday - Open @ 3964 (profit taking/relief + close above 3935) —> Break 35 but hold 17 (19 LOD) —> Reclaim 35 but fail close over 50💡 (see breakdown below)
Friday - Hold 3907 spot with 3909 LOW —> Reclaim 3935, find support —> Break 3957 —> Pop to 3973 —> Reject into close
HOW: 4039.49 CLOSE: 3970.98
LOW: 3909.16 OPEN: 3917.47
Analysis:
After basing above 3907 and closing almost right at 3917 we opened higher this week. Nonetheless we ended up testing these same levels Friday to end the week, where we found support at/near them again. Seeing as 3909 is LOW I am going to keep these two as my lowest levels of desired support this week. 3935 is also key to hold. We managed to hold it during the sell off Wednesday and close above it Thursday & Friday, I will be looking for a weekly close above + daily close Monday/Tuesday to possibly signal a move up. If that is the case + we hold the lowest desired supports then I would assume a bullish response.
I still think 3950 is a big spot, like I mentioned last week since we wicked up from it to make our last bullish push to 4200. (More below). This level goes hand in hand with 3957, where we rejected to start the week and wicked up from the last hour. Need daily closes above.
Highest on Watch Levels -
3973/74 (Possible KOW 🔑❓) -
First spot to get over and a key one. In the past this was key for us to hold and when failed we needed to hold 3935. As it seems we are holding 3935 I will now look to reclaim 3973/74 first + it is right above weekly close. When failing to hold it in the past we need to reclaim it, and when we do we have made a move up. Ultimately if we make a move up BUT do not hold this spot as support (if needed) then it was a false move up.
For me, I am looking for two daily closes above this level before believing a move up. Judging from the past I am hoping that the second day does not also reject a key level above and/or stall out on the move. If this it the case I will be cautious the third day just incase we sell due to the recent pattern.
4032/35 - Seeing as these are already big upside levels these now work as possible spots to act as failed PHOW tests.
4017🔑 -
Still remains and upside 🔑. At this point this might be Key of The Month after being a key in 3 straight articles. Enough has been said about this level that can be shown in the past. Long story short, you can see pretty clearly on the Daily chart how we have rejected this level in the recent past causing us to fail our moves higher or make a move higher after finding support at this level, similar to 3973. It is key to opening the door higher above 4000 and IMO just as important for upside.
Channels -
Again, after basing at and holding key levels we opened up higher this week. This is despite closing in the lower Daily downtrend channel last week. Since we opened higher and found desired supports (3917 again) we managed to close Monday into the upper Daily downtrend channel. Paired with breaking 3935🔑 and closing above 3950 on Monday this was very bullish; proceeded with a gap higher at open Tuesday to prove it.
Though we broke out of it on Wednesday this was during crazy FOMC movements and we failed to close out of it. Also pairing this with key levels (just like this Monday/Tuesday) we failed to get over 4035/32 (high 40) and those are big upside levels. Thursday too we rejected near top of the channel before even testing 4017 again. That being said I am waiting for a clear close outside of these channels before making any assumptions.
PLOW/PPLOW & Highs -
If we do end up selling off last week these are definitely the main spots to hold. Not holding 3907/PLOW could open us up to massive sells, this goes the rest for the levels to come. My first big spot I would be watching below this and 3900 would be 3879, below 3842, below 3819, PPLOW, 3800.
Above the “Highest on Watch Levels” I will be watching 4050, 4064, 4085, 4100, 4119. All updates on either side will be posted on my Twitter intraday/week if not updated with an article on here.
Previous Keys of Week🔑 (KOW) -
3907 -
Now that the week has unfolded, we see that the LOW was 3909 meaning that this 🔑 spot held throughout the week. This also means that the suspected support at/around this level seems to be true; which is big in us actually going higher on a macro basis rather than just having green days that get sold off. As stated, “price direction seems to follow closes above/below this spot, as well as wether it is support or resistance.” Now we have seen a daily wick up & close above ~this spot so now next step for me is to see if my theory is correct. Daily support + Close above = Lets see
3935 -
On Monday we got exactly what I wanted for this spot: Broke over ✅, Hourly base above ✅, even tho we rejected 3957 we closed above 50 ✅. Due to this we ended up opening higher on Tuesday👨🔬.
Another time this spot was useful this week was EOD Wednesday post FOMC. We ended up finishing the selloff right here while not selling past it. Due to this we ended up opening at 3964 Thursday, granted there needed to be a bit of a relief bounce/profit taking after the massive selloff IMO. Another thing to note is that on Thursday when 3935 finally broke we recovered but failed to close above 50 into close, closing at 48. Interesting to note as the close above 50 produced a higher open the next day while closing right below produced a lower open next.
🔑Hermes Key🔑:
A rare but quick Hermes Key🔑 here. So when you see daily opens right at a big level and it seems to be holding it for at least the first 15m candle (preferably a green close), chances are you will probably go higher. In some cases this may double as a LOD long entry right at open, you can backtrack with my personal levels and check as I have been seeing this in the past but recently occur more frequently. If you open a few points above and come back to test the level and it acts as support this is another possible indication of going higher.
A perfect example of this is 3917 to start the week Monday; we have a bonus of two green 15m candles, the second making a LL but still while holding 3917. We proceeded to go higher off of these two candles and never retested this spot making it the LOD. You can sometimes then watch for this spot to act as the “Line in the Sand” (LIS) for downside, or a last spot to break. In this example, you can see we found support at a big weekly spot laying just below.
Plan:
After seeing how well the channels + levels interactions worked last week I will be keeping an eye on them close this week. A huge key for me personally would be breakout out of the upper channel while also finding support at 4017🔑; not just breaking 4017 but finding support at it. This could be huge in us testing the highs of this week + maybe even taking out the 4050 spot from 3/7 & 4078/80 spot from 3/6. IF the case this would surely change the tides to bullish IMO.
I explained my plan with 3973 above so there is no point to repeat it, but I will definitely be watching this level closely this week both intraday and daily.
Need to see how this week unfolds first to be honest, not much news this week other than an action packed Friday morning. That being the case, I hope that we can get some organic price action this week and a clear sense of direction in where we are going next.
Watching daily closes over 3935 (need), 3950 (could signal upside), 3973 (need over), 4000, 4017 (need support) 📈 Watching bounces off 3935, 3950/57, 3917, 3907 (need)
Watching daily closes under 3950, 3935 (not good), 3907, 3900 📉 Watching rejects off 3973/74, 3980/88, 4000, 4017, 4032/35
💡Earnings Spotlight/Notable News📰:
Monday 3/27
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index @ 9:30 AM + Fed Jefferson Speech @ 4:00 PM
Tuesday 3/28
CB Consumer Confidence & Fed Barr Testimony @ 9:00 AM
MU 0.00%↑ WBA 0.00%↑ PLAY 0.00%↑ LOVE 0.00%↑ LULU 0.00%↑ MKC 0.00%↑
Wednesday 3/29
ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting @ 2:00 AM + MBA 30 - Year Mortgage Rate @ 6:00 AM + Pending Home sales YoY & MoM & Fed Barr Testimony @ 9:00 AM + BoE L Mann Speech @ 1:50 PM
Thursday 3/30
Corporate Profits QoQ, GDP Price Index QoQ, GDP Growth Rate QoQ & Initial Jobless Claims⭐️ @ 7:30 AM + Fed Barkin Speech @ 11:45 AM
Friday 3/31
EA Inflation Rate YoY Flash & Unemployment Rate⭐️ @ 4:00 AM + US Personal Income, Spending & Core PCE Price Index MoM @ 7:30 AM + Chicago PMI⭐️ @ 8:45 AM + Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final⭐️ @ 9:00 AM + Fed Williams Speech @ 2:05 + Fed Cook Speech @ 4:45 PM
Thanks as always for these bro! Haven't been as vocal last few weeks to a month, dealing w/ life, but your countless hrs/A-1 analysis/levels don't go unnoticed! Appreciate ya 👊