$SPXW 3/6 - 3/10 Pre Week Analysis
Recap:
Monday 2/27 - Personal spots worked insane - 4017🔑 (HOD) Reject —> 4k Rejects —> 3973🔑 (LOD) Bounce
Tuesday 2/28 - 73 Bounce —> Rejected 96/97, initial bounce spot Monday —> Lost 73 into close 💡
Wednesday 3/1 - “Chop.” Fail to reclaim 73 —> Defend PLOW —> Reject near 50
Thursday 3/2 - Reclaim 3935 near open —> Reclaim PLOW & Base —> Fed Bostic Pump past 50 —> 73 Base —> 88 Reject —> Close above 80👨🔬
Friday 3/3 - Open right at initial bounce spot & bounce 💡—> Initially reject 4017🔑 —> Break & test 32/35 spot… Base & go higher —> Reject ~50 but hold 32/35🤔
HOW: 4048.29 CLOSE: 4045.65
LOW: 3928.16 OPEN: 3992.36
Personal spots from last weeks “Pre Week Analysis”🔥. They speak for themselves. 4017🔑 will be key again as well as 3973🔑 if applicable. I gave an insight on how/why I picked 73 as a spot last week + why I was looking at it, I hope this helped.
The rays I will be mentioning are the new blue levels. Added them all last week intraday (ie. 3973 which I mentioned). I will be doing this going forward. Though I love my levels it gets stale to not add new ones & it is essential to analyze thing as the week goes on. Due to this I have been experimenting adding these levels intraday and it seems to be successful. If I do not have mid week Substack updates they will be included on my twitter.
*Click here for Twitter link*
Analysis:
We might have some digestion to start the week. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Tuesday and that will be a market mover IMO. That being said we most likely need to digest the HUGE *120* point move that occurred Thursday into Friday. Just a thought.
Bulls were very strong this week and made it known that they are still present but we also got this on the Fed Bostic pump. This week should help us figure out real direction and if last week already set it or not.
Rays -
Main Watches
3996/97 -
This was the initial bounce spot before we rejected 4017 on Monday and due to that I marked it. Conveniently we opened up there on Friday and defended it where we proceeded to bounce and continue the pump. If we retrace to this spot during the week I will look for it to possibly act as liquidity below 4K. Might be the target below 4017.
3973🔑 -
Key from last week, nicely defended Monday and even at open Tuesday but once we broke it into close it finally sold to 3950 and below. On the other side it rejected then based here for a bit before making the second leg into close on Thursday. Holding it this week (if needed) is desired for me as one of my main spots.
Talked about this level deeply last week + reasoning behind it, hourly confluence going months back to be short.
Secondary Watches (potentially more important last week)
3954 - New spot, confluent with 50. Once we broke this spot on the 5m after closing below it on the initial 15m of the Bostic pump we exploded higher.
3943 (PPLOW) - Defended through the week until opening below Thursday. We also bounced here after the pre news chop to start our move up.
Levels -
4017🔑 -
Key, need to hold this for the week to keep upside IMO. This is a Personal Spot for me as put last week, a bounce off this would turn it from recent resistance to support… one of my favorite things. (My analysis on this has been given and can be read in previous posts as I want to keep this short).
4050 -
As you can see we failed to get over this spot on Friday, granted we were a bit over extended after a total *120* point move. Displayed very clearly on my hourly chart you can the sell that started from here on 2/21, this makes getting over this spot so much more important. I think getting over here opens the door back up to 4100 and if we have any type of buys like the past two days it could get there quickly. Support —> Resistance —> Resistance —> Now support would be big. Huge psych level.
4064 - Next spot I will be looking to get over if we break 50.
Box -
I just drew this spot now after looking at the hourly and 15m. Seems it will be my personal spot to get over past 4064. Support at 4050 would be key in reaching this. I also have a level at 4085 which would be near the top of this box so I will be keeping close eye on this spot.
Volume -
Big buys last two days but relatively low compared to the sells, 1.8 billion & 2.07 billion. These are low compared to the 2.6 billion sell volume accumulated on Tuesday People may not be seeing a reason to sell (Thurs. Fri.), which can definitely be a case and attests for the buy volume, so that could be the reason why sell recent volume is low. If we get sells I will be watching this closely to see if volume accumulates again.
Plan:
As I mentioned we may see some digestion tomorrow (2/6) as we had a *120* point move and a Fed Chair Powell Testimony on Tuesday. I will be careful up until then tomorrow and around the times of his speech (10 AM).
Personally I would really like to see 4050 break and act as strong support (ie. a bounce that sends us into a trend day or base that provides a bounce). This would prove to me that bulls could be back on their horse and ready to go again. Could possibly foreshadow a 4100 test.
I am watching this lower Daily channel again this week now that we are well back inside of it. We closed right under the mid line and a test of the top would put us around my 4119 & 4137 levels. IF we breach it and close into the main channel I will be looking to see if we can resume the trend that it originally was in.
Want to see us hold 3973 as the lowest lowest desired level of support for me. That could prove, even with some selling, that bulls are still here.
📈 - For the week I think Bulls need to get a close above 4017 to show that this run is for real and not just a relief bounce. This would also be MY lowest level of desired support; below that 4000, 3996, 3988/80. Closing above 4050 would be bullish, as well as getting above 4100. Coming close to 4150 and closing anywhere near there would most likely put us right on track for another 4200 test which is HUGE and would put us at yearly highs.
📉 - For the week I think Bears would like a close below 4000 to really put the breaks on and at least 4050; 4032/35 would also prove that they slowed down this week and 4017 would pin us at last weeks start. A rejection of 4100 would be bearish and could maybe put bears back in control depending on how harsh it is. Closing below it would definitely be needed to have any hopes in slowing bears down as well since a close above IMO puts us in a bullish sentiment.
💡Earnings Spotlight/Notable News📰:
Monday 3/6
Factory Orders MoM @ 10:00 AM + Australia Balance of Trade @ 7:30 PM + China Balance of Trade @ 10:00 PM
Tuesday 3/7
⭐️ DKS 0.00%↑ CRWD 0.00%↑ JKS 0.00%↑ MANU 0.00%↑ ⭐️ WTI 0.00%↑
⭐️ Fed Chair Powell Testimony @ 10:00 AM⭐️
Wednesday 3/8
ECB President Lagarde Speech @ 5:00 AM + US & CA Balance of Trade 8:30 AM + BoC Interest Rate Decision, ⭐️JOLTS Job Openings, Fed Chair Powell Testimony @ 10:00 AM + ⭐️China Inflation Rate YoY, Inflation Rate MoM, PPI YoY @ 8:30 PM
Thursday 3/9
ULTA 0.00%↑ BJ 0.00%↑ DOCU 0.00%↑ GPS 0.00%↑ JD 0.00%↑
Initial Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM + Fed Barr Speech @ 10:00 AM + BoJ Interest Rate Decision @ 10:00 PM
Friday 3/10
Great Britain DEP MoM @ 2:00 AM + ⭐️Non Farm Payrolls, ⭐️Unemployment Rate @ 8:30 AM + ECB President Lagarde Speech @ 10:00 AM