$SPXW 3/20 - 3/24 Pre Week Analysis
Another insane week and I hope it helped. We got not one but TWO more HOD rejects this week (3/14 & 3/17). One being off 1 key of the week in 3935🔑, could not ask for more; the other off 3957 which was a clear one to help end the week off on a bang. We also got a ~LOW bounce to start the week, I added this level into the Substack shortly after posting it & finding it in my old levels.
Analysis:
Essentially we held 3800 without it actually getting tested. This means that the trend for now, IMO, has not shifted yet. It also means that we have not yet erased our YTD gains and the current LOY stays intact. After holding 3800/3808 (LOW) we held PLOW & 3842, a previous desired support, when needed. This proves that we are potentially establishing supports at needed levels down here; another being at 3907 with basing displayed on Fridays hourly chart. 3907 looks to be a big spot to hold as support on the daily as well dating back to September 22’. Price direction seems to follow closes above/below this spot, as well as wether it is support or resistance. I am going to add 3907🔑 as a possible key for this week.
On the contrary we are rejecting 3957 which personally is my first level to get over above 3935. Like I said last week too I am looking for a daily close above 50 once we break 35 as it is the spot we wicked up hard from to make our recent ~4200 test. Also after looking at recent PA it seems establishing an hourly base or daily close above 3935 seems to be key in going higher; which we failed to do on Friday. Granted this could be a lot to ask for in the same week as testing 3800.
Levels
📈: 3935🔑, 50-54-57, 73/74, 80/88, 4k, 4017🔑, 32/35, 50, 64, 4078 (3/6 high)
📉: 3917, 3907🔑, 3900, 3891.39 - 3887.77 (box), 79, 64, 42, 19, LOW/07
I would assume 3842/3838 (liq grabbed past it) would act as support if tested. However seeing the box, 3879 or even 3864 would be desired for upside. Below all of these I would want to see PLOW hold up or we could be subject to large sells.
Getting back over 3935 then 57/PHOW would be first steps in going higher, next step being 73/74. These are all big spots to get over, that being said I will personally be cautious around these levels until given a sense of direction. 4017 being a 🔑 once again shows how much we need to get over this spot, as usual this will be my first target if we break 4k.
3973/74 -
Another personal spot I will be watching this week. I mentioned this spot awhile ago in my previous Substacks published on February 21 and 26 (past reasoning below). Since we lost it, once again it seems like the spot to get over on the hourly, at least for me. Due to that I will be looking to see if we do this week if possible. IF we do an hourly base above/support would be desired.
Plan:
If we manage to pop this week and break 4017 we will more than likely break out of these downtrend daily channels. This will also be after closing above the weekly downtrend channel this week after previously closing in it last week. I am keeping this on watch as it could possibly change the current sentiment (if 3800 defense was not enough).
Another thing I am noting is that we once again defended 3800 and keep the current YTD low in tact as I mentioned earlier. All speculation, but I wonder if another 3800 defense, this time being above it (the last occurring with a low @ 3764) could lead us to test 4200 again. If this is the case hypothetically speaking since we are coming off a higher low we should then see a higher high and this time actually test or break above 4200. For this to be the case we would really need to pop this week and cement 3808 as the current low for the move. *Again all speculation and just a current theory/hypothesis*
Pretty sure my plan should be pretty clear from the analysis. First major upside spot being 3935🔑 & 50/PHOW/57. Major downside spots to hold are box,79,64 & 42, 42 being the main. I am once again expecting resistance at 4017 if we test it and if it is not there then I would expect us to go higher. If there is resistance again then I will look for the levels below it that broke to possibly act as support.
💡Earnings Spotlight/Notable News📰:
Monday 3/20
EA Balance of Trade @ 5:00 AM + ECB President Lagarde Speech @ 9:00 & 11:00 AM
Tuesday 3/21
ECB President Lagarde Speech @ 7:30 AM + US Existing Home Sales MoM @ 9:00 AM + 52 Week Bill Auction @ 10:30 AM
NKE 0.00%↑ ARRY 0.00%↑ GME 0.00%↑
Wednesday 3/22
ECB President Lagarde Speech @ 3:45 AM + ECB Lane Speech @ 4:30 AM + ⭐️Fed Interest Rate Decision & FOMC⭐️ @ 1:00 PM + ⭐️Fed Press Conference⭐️ @ 1:30 PM
OLLI 0.00%↑ CHWY 0.00%↑ BZUN 0.00%↑ WOOF 0.00%↑
Thursday 3/23
Initial Jobless Claims @ 7:30 AM + New Home Sales MoM @ 9:00 AM + JP Inflation Rate YoY @ 6:30 PM + GB Consumer Confidence @ 7:01 PM
DRI 0.00%↑ GIS 0.00%↑ LAC 0.00%↑
Friday 3/24
Durable Good Orders MoM @ 7:30 AM + Fed Bullard Speech @ 8:30 AM + S&P Global Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMI Flash @ 8:45 AM