$SPX Pre Week Analysis 5/1-5/5
Recap:
Analysis:
4050 -
This weeks support level and one I have talked a lot about in the past. I would expect this to once again act as support if needed/tested. If not you can see the next levels below pictured: 4035/32. These will be the next spots I will be watching to produce support. Above 4050, I will also be watching that 4064 level.
4076 -
A spot mentioned a lot in the recent past, with its wigeel room down to 4073 I would like to see this area act as support if needed. A bounce might be given above at the 4085 level as well. However, this 4076 spot was a good find on the hourly and after the bounce near it on Thursday the hourly looks very good. Maybe that bounce was the desired hourly support🤔, but if not another bounce could signal more upside.
4137 -
Going to include a screenshot of what my plans for this level were going into this week to help break this down. “With the upper Gann Box rejecting again this week, and the close right under 4137, I am interested to see if this is an indication we might sell off a bit from this spot” - Hermes. As you can see once this week started: we got over 3 —> failed to base above —> sold below —> rejected into close AND closed right below. If you read last weeks Substack and applied it, this you should have been an easy short opportunity. It was easy to sense the fishiness in the move after once again failing to close over 37 AND rejecting it into close… and this is without factoring in the channels (more below).
Finally, we got the weekly close above 4137 that I have been desiring. Despite the close over, we have once again rejected the midline of this Gann Box. I was looking for a weekly close above this level as an indication that bulls are still here - though they have proved it I will be cautious considering we failed to get over this Gann Box midline once again.
In that screenshot you can also see that I mentioned 4137 has been acting as a rejection spot rather than support lately. More or less this seemed to be the case once again this week other than when we bounced @ 4135 on Friday. This being the case I will be giving 4137 support some wiggle room to 35. A bounce off this level could signify more upside. If comes a time this week where it fails to act as support, then rejects it, I would expect a sell off.
Gan Box ⬆️ -
Once again we have rejected the midline of this Gann Box, both occurring clearly on the hourly. I do not want to be so fast to call this a rejection however. This is due to the fact that we reached this spot EOW just at close and did not really have the time to see if price could trade above it. Also “technically” we closed above it (midline ~68) and the past hourly candle.
This is easily the key of the week, it is the only thing holding us back from 4200. If we reject it once again then I think it is a pretty safe bet to say price does not belong up here. I would like to see an hourly close above the BOX not just the midline + how the next 15m candle reacts before firing off any haste longs.
Gan Box ⬇️ -
Possibly another spot to watch for support this week, as displayed in the screenshot you can see that 4123 acted as decent hourly support to start the week (bounce then close over —> midline support, etc,) When price traded above this level the top of the box @ 4127 seemed to act as good support as well; providing a bounce EOD Thursday and two HUGE bounces on Friday.
Channels -
Honestly hard to ask for more out of the channels this week. A beautiful bounce occurring Tuesday when testing the lower line of this downtrend channel + a close right near top of the uptrend.
Once we closed in this lower uptrend channel - while continuously rejecting that line despite trying to grind up + rejecting 4137 - this should have been a clear short signal. Similarly, the bottom of the channel/channels should have shown to be the most optimal long entry. It is NEVER easy or a smart thing to try and top or bottom tick - HOWEVER these entries provided you with the best risk to reward and as you can see… played out to our favor. I would take note of these patterns going forward. This is not to say throw all your money at entries like this, similar to other entries you should have a planned stop loss/take profit (risk/reward).
The midlines were also fairly useful: Downtrend channel midline provided a nice bounce & seemed to be a spot to trade over intraday for more upside & Uptrend midline seemed to work as a similar spot.
Plan:
Main watches for the week: 4137🔑, Gann Box⬆️🔑, Gann Box⬇️, 4076, Top of downtrend channel & uptrend channel, Midline of both channels
I will be watching these channels closely again this week; they have worked almost perfectly for the whole month of April so I will be looking for that to continue. These midlines may be useful intraday, possibly as spots to get over similar to last week. Though I expect them to produce a move I expect a bigger reaction when encountering the actual channel lines.
4137 is the 🔑 once again because now that we are trading over it… and with a close at the same price as before… we risk repeating the past. If needed we need to hold it or 4150 to have a chance at a different outcome. Last time: we failed to get an hourly close inside the box after the rejection, never got concrete support at 49/50 or 37 then proceeded to reject them both. Once again, I want to see 4137 act as support. Another rejection from this level would make me question why we are still trading at this price. If the support is not needed then that is fine, I would imagine we run up and test 4200. However, losing this level this week would not be a good sign to me.
For more upside I would want to see an hourly close within the Gann Box⬆️. Last time price failed to get a single hourly close inside for two whole days after the rejection… pretty much saying something. No hourly close inside, I would imagine history repeats itself. Next step would be an hourly close above this the midline, this is a big spot due to the past rejection. I will personally be watching for the first 15m close over and what price does after. The real 🔑 for upside here is breaking the Gann Box and getting an hourly close above. Just breaking it on a smaller time frame will not be enough confirmation as it could just be a liquidity grab. I am fully expecting us to reject at first test as well, thats what normally happens at the top of these boxes I draw. If it is a harsh rejection then this might be the spot that Market Makers use to trap people who bought too soon, probably at the initial midline break. All things considered, if we rip right through then I think we should see 4200 again.
💡Earnings Spotlight/Notable News📰:
Monday 5/1
JP Consumer Confidence @ 12:00 AM + ⭐️ISM Manufacturing PMI @ 9:00 AM + 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction @ 10:30 AM
CHGG 0.00%↑ MGM 0.00%↑ NCLH 0.00%↑ SOFI 0.00%↑ ON 0.00%↑
Tuesday 5/2
⭐️JOLTs Job Openings, Factory Orders MoM @ 9:00 AM + ⭐️API Crude Oil Stock Change @ 3:30 PM
⭐️ AMD 0.00%↑ ⭐️ PFE 0.00%↑ BP 0.00%↑ CLX 0.00%↑ F 0.00%↑ MAR 0.00%↑ SBUX 0.00%↑ SUN 0.00%↑ ⭐️ UBER 0.00%↑ WTI 0.00%↑
Wednesday 5/3
MBA 30-year Mortgage Rate @ 6:00 AM + ⭐️ISM Services PMI, ISM Services Employment @ 9:00 AM + EIA Crude Oil & Gas Stocks Change @ 9:30 AM + 17-week Bill Auction @ 10:30 AM + ⭐️Fed Interest Rate Decision/FOMC⭐️ @ 2:00 PM + ⭐️Fed Press Conference⭐️ @ 2:30 PM
Thursday 5/4
Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Initial Jobless claims @ 7:30 AM⭐️ + EIA Nat Gas Stock Change @ 9:30 AM + 8 & 4 week Bill Auction @ 10:30 AM
⭐️ AAPL 0.00%↑ ⭐️ ⭐️ COIN 0.00%↑ DASH 0.00%↑ DKNG 0.00%↑ LYFT 0.00%↑ MRNA 0.00%↑ PARA 0.00%↑ RCL 0.00%↑ W 0.00%↑
Friday 5/5
⭐️Non Farm Payrolls, ⭐️Unemployment Rate, Government & Manufacturing Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings MoM/YoY, @ 7:30 AM (Out of room, AMC 0.00%↑ )