$SPX Pre Week Analysis 4/17 - 4/21
Recap:
Now that the week has unfolded you can see we bounced here. Not only it being the 4076 wiggle room but the 180 ema as mentioned. After bouncing here we continued to ride this ema up all week for the most part.
On Tuesday we ended up failing to break the CE (mid point) of this box with no 5m closes inside the box for a whole HOUR💡. After this we then proceeded to sell as you would expect if watching and having this box on your chart.
Wednesday when it was tested after the CPI volatility and wildness price rejected the top multiple times (making it a clear short) to sell us all the way to ~4085🔥.
There was also multiple times Thurs/Fri where this box provided intraday moves.
Pretty self explanatory here, quick tweet right before the magic happened. This is why I say to watch my Twitter during the week for new/different spots I may be watching that were not included in these Pre Week Substacks.
Monday 4/10 -
Quick recap of the day, intraday look at how the spots/levels work
4073 ended up actually being a LOW long entry point off desired support⚡️ (4072.55 LOW) and 4076 provided 2 re-entry bounces after🔑. Hope this helped, honestly could not have asked for better.
Analysis:
Quick Takeaways: 1. Closed @ 4137 (desired close above for more upside) 2. Though 4150 broke we rejected new box + hour closed below 3. Closed above weekly downtrend channel but below daily uptrend channel 4. Support @ 4076/73
I mentioned last week that 4137 was my desired Weekly level to close over for more upside, now that we have closed right at it I honestly don’t know what to make of it (lol). This spot also seemed to be where liquidity lied. That being the case this could mean we stalled out here since we finally met where sellers are. (I would personally peg liquidity above this @ 4146-50-56-bottom box-HOW.) Definitely going to be a spot to get over and after that I personally would like to see support here. With it already being a significant level for me I will be watching much closer this week - close eyes on if it turns to support.
Still need confirmation that we should be trading at/above this level and how we traded above it this week isn’t convincing. I am looking for an hourly close above 4150. After that I am going to look for a close into this new box possibly above it’s midline @ 4068 to signal some more upside. An hourly close above 68 could prove to be bullish, I still might need to observe some more price action in this box to see what we do. IF we break 4150 & bottom of box rejects again then I would look for 4150 to act as support… if failed support then it could foreshadow a dump.
(Included in “Channels” section below)
This is key. I wrote last week that these were expected spots to produce support but the support we got off them this week was absolutely perfect. With this spot acting as such strong support I would not be surprised to see it do so again if tested. I would also expect this strong of support to propel us higher… but I will be cautious and make sure last weeks move up was not THE move up. Meaning I do not want to chase upside here now after the ~100 point move off this level last week.
Channels -
So, we closed at a weird point with it being right at 4137 BUT it is also right below the daily uptrend channel and above the weekly downtrend channel. I was hoping to close into the uptrend channel after breaking out of the downtrend as a way to signify more upside. However, I am not running to open up a short due to this. Just because we didn’t close in this channel does not negate the bullish things witnessed this week (ie. 4176 support, breaking downtrend channel, breaking 4137). I copied the uptrend channel pictured and pasted it below & above in case we trade relative to them; I did the same with the downtrend channel and pasted it above. Neither pictured because it is cluttered but I recommend doing the same in case we continue to trade in these paths (channels).
Spots to watch for price interactions: Top of downtrend channel (expecting a bounce @ or near), midline of uptrend channel (may reject), bottom of uptrend channel, all lines on new pasted channels.
Plan:
As I said earlier I want to see an hourly close above 4150, this is very important for me to get more upside. Making our trip to the box and HOW will be first stops after. Again, trading around this area but not being able to close above it is not a good look and could signify we are weaker up here than we look. 4137 is also a key spot to get over/reject for a sense of direction. It opens the door for 4150 or 4119 IMO. And a true break of 4150 might be what we need to finally retest 4200 again.
4119 acted as good support EOD Friday, I will be watching it and Fridays low of 4113 as possible levels of support. 4113 might be one of those spots that I like to watch as resistance/support so I will be keeping a close eye here myself.
Boxes: Gann Box @ 4123 - 4127.42, New Gann Box @ 4159.89 - 4168 - 4176.40, Box* @ 4130.18 - 4131.66
*Box is a random one I drew near CPI highs, ended up working out pretty well. Going to keep this one up but definitely not the most concrete & tested spot or my top watch.
4100 is once again key to hold this week if we sell… if not then 4085 & 4076/73 will be my targeted supports. Breaking 4100 is a bearish signal on its own but also breaking these levels is very very bearish to me. If they do break I would need to see them reclaimed and/or a weekly close above. If not I would assume we get back to trading in the downtrend channels.
💡Earnings Spotlight/Notable News📰:
Monday 4/17
NAHB Housing Market Index @ 9:00 AM + ECB President Lagarde Speech @ 10:00 AM
Tuesday 4/18
Building Permits, Housing Starts @ 7:30 AM + Fed Bowman Speech @ 12:00 AM
⭐️ NFLX 0.00%↑ BAC 0.00%↑ FHN 0.00%↑ GS 0.00%↑ IBKR 0.00%↑ JNJ 0.00%↑ LMT 0.00%↑ UAL 0.00%↑
Wednesday 4/19
MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate @ 6:00 AM
⭐️ TSLA 0.00%↑ ALLY 0.00%↑ EFX 0.00%↑ IBM 0.00%↑ LVS 0.00%↑ MS 0.00%↑ NDAQ 0.00%↑ $
Thursday 4/20
⭐️Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 7:30 AM + Existing Home Sales @ 9:00 AM + Fed Waller Speech @ 11:00 AM + Fed Bowman Speech @ 2:00 PM
⭐️ AXP 0.00%↑ T 0.00%↑ BX 0.00%↑ NOK 0.00%↑
Friday 4/21
Fed Cook Speech @ 3:35 PM