$SPX 3/13-3/17 Pre week Analysis & Plan
Thank you for all the support lately, it means the world. Now lets get cooking👨🔬
Recap:
Monday 3/6: Digestion of the big move up + before Powell - Failed to hold & rejected 4050 into close ✍️
Tuesday 3/7: Reject 4050 @ open + Powell sell, Retest 4035🔥 for continuation —> Bounce 4k —> Failed close over 4017 —> Break 4k —> Hold 3980
Wednesday 3/8: Reject 4k —> Break 3980 but hold 73🔑 —> Chop —> Loose 73 into power hour —> Break over 88 into close
Thursday 3/9: Open higher but REJECT 4017🔑 hard which results in sell —> 4000 Retest/Reject —> 3980-73 break with ease = sells continue fast past 3950 —> Bounce off 3907 then chop up into close
Friday 3/10: Open lower but bounce off 3879 —> Reject 3935 HARD —> Fail to reclaim/reject 3900 —> Sell to 3846 —> Bounce & reject 3879 into close 💡
HOW: 4078.49 Close: 3861.60
LOW: 3846.32 Open: 4055.15
LOY: 3794.33
Seeing as the current sentiment and trend seems to be bearish I am preparing for the possibility we may test this level. IF this is the case and we break it then we make a new LOY and IMO we could get some drastic sells after.
🔑Previous KOW🔑:
4017 - Provided a huge rejection that propelled the sell off EOW. This was a key level to get hold so to see us get under it then reject it so hard is not a good sign. Stated last month to see this level flip to resistance would not be good. Still the first stop to get over after 4000 and once again possibly more important.
3973 - Was key in holding us up Wednesday and helping us stay afloat on the way back to 4k + it provided us with the strength to reach 4017 & get the beautiful rejection. However, once it broke we continued to sell HARD.
Analysis:
We had a *~171* point sell that occurred Thursday into Friday off of the 4017 rejection. This is a HUGE move to occur in only two days, beating the 120 point move last Thursday into Friday. I mentioned that the buy volume on that 120 point pop did not seem like anything crazy to me relative to recent sells; fast forward to this week and the 170 point sell accumulated 2.3 billion sell vol (3/9) & 2.7 sell vol (3/10). These are both larger than the total (buy & sell) volume accumulated during last weeks pop. Something to take note of IMO. Friday also had the most volume we have seen since February 2nd, the day we rejected 4195.
Again I will expect a day of digestion and small movement. After wanting/calling for one Monday in last weeks pre week article, due to last weeks big EOW move, we seemed to get it. I will be seeing if this is the case again. We could possibly see a small relief bounce due to the massive sell off we just had, also we are sitting at possible supports and profit taking for those who have not done so yet.
Levels To Break📈 -
3935 -
After the harsh rejection I think this level could act as a 🔑 to upside down here. This will probably be my personal most desired level to get over for the upside (other than 3900). Above this I would love to see a 3950 test - if that does not happen I would expect us to possibly reject 3943.
3900 -
Need over, if it rejects we should head to 3800. Not only a big psych level but close enough that it could get tested early this week, especially with 3850 acting as support.
3864 & 3879 -
Original spots for me when I went long off 3800 earlier in the year. Seems again like they will be the spots to get over; this time being the first if we open around the same spot.
Desired Supports📉 -
3850/42 -
Seeing as 3842 has not been tested yet I am curious to see if it actually acts as support when put to the test. So far 3850 seems to be acting as good support for now. If this remains the case on Monday then I will look for it to be the spot to hold intraday.
3819 - Last level for me before 3800, which is also a level of desired support.
3800 - Loosing this puts us back in time; we would erase all of our total Year to Date gains. Simple as that. We need to stay above here or else we have the possibility to take on a new trend for the year.
3779/80 -
My lowest level of DESIRED support this week. I would like to see this hold in order for us to still go higher. Holding this was key for me when longing 3800 the first time, IMO if we break this we should see harsh sells.
(3864 & 3879) - Though we are sitting below these levels, I personally would like to see support get established above them in order to push us higher. We seemed to reject 3879 Friday to switch the little EOD buy back into sells. First big spot for me to get over this week.
(3935) - Seeing this flip back to support from resistance may signal that we would go higher. Possibly may not be possible this week if we start to get more sells; however I am watching this level to turn to support in the future.
Channels
I posted this daily channel in last weeks Mid week update; as you can see we clearly have sold through it AND the copy and pasted one below. Not only did we close below the second daily channel but we also closed inside the weekly channel. This puts us back in the downtrend IMO. A close into the second daily channel could foreshadow a move higher, this would also work the best if the close is also above the weekly channel. Since we closed above this channel we have not retested it so it is not a good sign that when we did we did not bounce AND closed inside of it.
Once we closed outside of this channel on the daily; it chopped the next day (still closed above), then the next went down back into the channel where it wicked up and close above once again. Due to this I am noting two things
3950 - This was the spot where we wicked up from on that third day which managed to send us higher. If we manage to get over 3935🔑 then I will look for a close above 50. To see us get over it then see it act as support could be a good sign.
3 Daily Candles - Since the 3 days seemed to set the sentiment when breaking out of the channel, I will see if it is the same now back in it. If it plays out I will be cautious on Tuesday if we pop, with the theory that we could reject and close back into the channel. Again this is just a theory I will be watching & thought I would share.
I will be watching where we close the week relative to both the weekly and daily channels as it may display the underlying move.
Plan:
Personally 3779/80 is another key for me this week. As stated we could see harsher sells if this breaks + this was a spot for me when originally longing 3800 to start the year. That being said if this spot breaks it could foreshadow a trip back to previous lows.
Seeing 3800 break with confirmation would be horrible and erase all YTD gains. Reminder LOY sits @ 3794.33. A complete trend change while trading back inside the weekly downtrend channel does not sound good to me.
Added Spots - 3762/64 & 3749/50. Saw some things on the daily that peaked my interest about these spots, due to that these will be my spots I am watching below the 3779/80 lowest desired support. (*Side note I just checked old levels & have them @ 64 & 50*.) So yea, definitely spots I will look for if harsh sells continue. (ANOTHER ADDED SPOT/RECOVERED OLD LEVELS: 3807 & 3811.)
Though I would love to say I front ran that short at 4200 but I sadly did not. I did not catch 4017 as well (busy this week). That being said I am a little late to the shorting party here so I do not want to rush into any trades yet. I also do not want to gain a bias too quick but as I stated earlier the recent volume has been favoring sells. That paired with a possible small relief bounce could provide for a decent re-add opportunity. Any intraday updates will be posted on my twitter as usual.
Upside wise 3864-79 are key to start a move to 3900, not only a big psych level but helps switch trend change, all recent psych levels like this (ie; 4000, 4100) have been rejecting so to establish a base or support above would be helpful. 3935 IMO is the spot to make any real moves higher. I will be watching for another rejection there, keep in mind it is now the high of Fridays candle (34).
Keep in mind there is lots of news this week! CPI Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. These are both normally market movers.
💡Earnings Spotlight/Notable News📰:
*Will Update ER Soon*
Tuesday 3/14
AM session: Great Britain Unemployment Rate @ 2:00 AM + US Core Inflation Rate/Inflation Rate YoY @ 7:30 AM + ⭐️CPI @ 7:30 AM ⭐️ + Fed Bowman @ 420 PM.
PM session: China Industrial Production & Retail Sales YoY & Unemployment Rate & Fixed Asset Investment YTD/YoY @ 9:00 PM.
Wednesday 3/15
AM session: ⭐️PPI/Core PPI MoM⭐️ & Retail Sales MoM @ 7:30 AM
PM session: JP Balance of trade @ 6:50 PM & Australia Unemployment Rate @ 7:30 PM
Thursday 3/16
Jobless Claims @ 7:30 AM + ⭐️ECB Interest Rate Decision @ 8:15 AM + ECB Press Conference @ 8:45 AM⭐️
Friday 3/17
EA Inflation Rate YoY @ 5:00 AM + ⭐️Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 9:00 AM
Update -
I may start a paid section going forward. As of now the plan is to keep the Pre Week Analysis as is but also add a paid section. This would also include intraday updates and levels I am looking at (ie; 4017 short this week, 3935 short this week). In addition a paid subscriber chat here on Substack will also be opened + other benefits (charting help, 1 on 1s).
Not to get personal but right now I am in between jobs and this would help me continue to pursue this as I love, while also keeping it free. I can also benefit those who would like to pay and have an additional experience. Let me know.